Phare programme “Biodiversity Modelling and Scenarios”

Guiding decision-making toward better integration of biodiversity into human activities and the sustainable management of biodiversity requires stronger linkages between research and action—particularly in countries of the Global South, where most of the key biodiversity management challenges are concentrated.

At this level, there is growing societal demand for the development of scenarios related to the future of coupled human–nature systems, and for models that can capture the changes affecting biodiversity.

In this context, the French Foundation for Biodiversity Research (FRB) launched in 2010 a flagship program entitled “Biodiversity Modelling and Scenarios,” aimed at supporting and structuring French research in this emerging field by bringing together scientists from various disciplines and societal stakeholders.

An analysis of the projects submitted under the first call for proposals in 2010 revealed that the connection between researchers, field operators, and local decision-makers remained insufficient. As a result, a partnership was established with the FFEM to better identify the needs of actors in the Global South and respond more effectively to their expectations. This partnership enables the program’s full potential to be leveraged in order to promote the direct application of research outcomes in the field.

The project is structured around three technical components:

1. Development of models and scenarios for the future of biodiversity
2. Promoting dialogue between researchers and biodiversity management stakeholders
3. Conducting an assessment of biodiversity scenario research and analyzing societal expectations on this topic

In 2013, a call for proposals led to the selection of five projects:

• BioSceneMaDa: Biodiversity evolution scenarios under the combined effects of climate change and deforestation in Madagascar.
• CAMMISolE: Impacts of global change in West Africa and Madagascar on soil microbial diversity and the resulting consequences for ecosystem services.
• Cerise: Rodent invasion scenarios in the Sahel – impacts of global change on the expansion of the Nigerian gerbil and the house mouse in Senegal.
• CoForSet: Biodiversity scenarios and compensation mechanisms in Congo Basin forests.
• BIO-THAW: Modelling interactions between biodiversity and land use – the case of high Andean wetlands affected by changing glacier water availability.

The main impact of the project is the integration of biodiversity scenarios—that is, possible responses of biodiversity and associated ecosystem services to global and local changes.

Other expected impacts of the project include:

• Enhancing the capacity of researchers from the Global South to develop biodiversity scenarios as decision-support tools that meet the needs of biodiversity management stakeholders.
• Strengthening the development of biodiversity scenarios focused on countries of the Global South and involving local actors.